Electoral Calculus is predicting a big Conservative win in both Thanet seats in today’s election (June 8).
According to the political forecasting website South Thanet will return Craig Mackinlay. The poll gives him a 72% chance of winning despite his recent woes after being charged by the CPS over election expense fraud claims.
The poll gives Labour’s Raushan Ara a 24% chance of taking the seat while Ukip’s Stuart Piper is predicted to have a 4% chance of a win. Other candidates are not given odds.
The 2015 battle
The predictions are a far cry from the 2015 battle which saw Conservative and UKIP neck and neck. Craig Mackinlay took the seat but his win over UKIP’s Nigel Farage was secured by a slim 2,182 majority.
North Thanet
North Thanet predictions give veteran Conservative MP Sir Roger Gale an 88% chance of taking the seat, which he has held for over 30 years, once more.
Labour’s Frances Rehal is predicted to have an 11% chance while UKIP’s Clive Egan scrapes in with a one per cent chance of a win, according to the website.
Sir Roger held the seat with a majority of 10,948 in the 2015 election – taking 49% of the vote.
National prediction
Electoral Calculus predicts a Conservative win with 361 seats, a majority of 72, followed by Labour with 216, Lib Dems with 3, UKIP none, Greens 1, SNP 48, PlaidC 3, Northen Ireland 18.
Time to vote
Thanet’s 56 polling stations are now open until 10pm tonight. Your polling card will have the station you need to vote at or you can find it here
The count will be held at Margate Winter Gardens and the announcement will be made by Thanet council chief executive Madeline Homer.
Prediction for a results time for Thanet have not been given. In 2015 delays with ballot boxes being transported to the count meant the results were not heard until 10.30am the next day.